This is the email I sent out June 19 even though Harris replaced Biden nothing in my analysis predicting a decisive Trump victory changed
On Wednesday, June 19, 2024 at 07:45:59 AM PDT, hutchinsonreport@aol.com <hutchinsonreport@aol.com> wrote:
Why Trump will Win
- Illegal immigration anger over–Biden gets the blame
- Biden’s age a major issue with many
- Trump’s massive and expanded fanatical MAGA Base
- Benefit from the old Nixon Silent Majority-who won’t admit they back Trump but will quietly vote for him–crucial to him winning the key swing states
- The horrible overreach by the Dems in trying and convicting him–Gave him the angle made in heaven–DEM POLITICAL WITCHHUNT– I’M A POLITICAL VICTIM
- Trumps uncanny raw wisecracking big lie telling ability to message in such a way that connects with Joe and Jane Blue Collar six pack
- Inflation–Biden will continue to get the blame
- America is a right center country. One look at the Electoral College Red and Blue state map will tell one that. With the exception of the two coasts and off and on Democratic support in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania the map is solid Red.
- The EC. Trump has a lock on two states that historically have played an outsized role in electing presidents. That’s Ohio and Florida. Both are totally GOP controlled. They have nearly 50 EC votes between them. That’s nearly one fifth of the total Trump needs–or any GOP presidential candidate for that matter to win.
- Later I ADDED This
- Harris is a she. The US in its two hundred fifty-year presidential history has never had a woman president. Yes, polls say that most Americans say they have no problem voting for a woman president. But that’s purely for public consumption and to salve their conscience. The American presidency is still seen by many as a man’s job, and that includes many women who think that too.
- With a few tweaks and add ons that is pretty much the same reasons I wrote in an email dated September 12, 2016, that Trump despite given virtually no chance to win against Hillary Clinton, I said then he may win. Eight years later little changed.
- A final note– frankly the only mild surprise to me was that Harris given the overwhelming odds against her did as well as she did.